The Relationship between Hydro-Agricultural Drought in the Corong River Basin: A Causal Time Series Regression Model

Authors

  • Nur Azizah Affandy Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
  • Data Iranata Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
  • Nadjadji Anwar Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
  • Mahendra Andiek Maulana Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
  • Wasis Wardoyo Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
  • Dedy Dwi Prastyo Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
  • Bangun Muljo Sukojo Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.9744/ced.26.2.173-190

Keywords:

Drought, hydrological drought, normalized difference drought index, causal time series regression

Abstract

This research explores the relationship between hydrological drought and agricultural drought in the Corong River Basin, focusing on the Gondang Reservoir Irrigation Area, Indonesia. By employing a Causal Time Series Regression Model, the study uncovers that agricultural drought twelve months prior has a significant impact on current agricultural drought and is influenced by current hydrological drought. Time series regression analysis reveals that 45.86% of agricultural drought is influenced by hydrological drought, with 54.14% influenced by other factors besides rainfall. Further research is needed to investigate these additional factors. These findings have practical implications, serving as a valuable index for assessing drought severity and planning mitigation actions, especially in the irrigation areas of interest. They emphasize the importance of effective irrigation management, appropriate cropping patterns, and a comprehensive understanding of the complex characteristics of drought in agricultural regions through comprehensive monitoring efforts in agricultural drought mitigation.

Author Biographies

Data Iranata, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

He is the promoter of our dissertation, he provided input and ideas for this research to be conducted. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Planning, And Geo-Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA

Nadjadji Anwar, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

He was the primary supervisor for the doctoral study and the preparation of this research proposal, but he passed away in 2022. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Planning, And Geo-Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA

Mahendra Andiek Maulana, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

They are an assistant supervisor providing input and guidance on the content and structure of the article, grammar arrangement, and the substance of the discussion. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Planning, And Geo-Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA

Wasis Wardoyo, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

They were the second supervisor who assisted in providing input and guidance for the development of research ideas, but they passed away in 2021. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Planning, And Geo-Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, INDONESIA

Dedy Dwi Prastyo, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

They were the second supervisor who assisted in overall statistical analysis during the research development. Checking grammar and drafting this article. Department of Statistics, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Indonesia

Bangun Muljo Sukojo, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology

He was a professor specializing in remote sensing, thus, in the preparation of this research, he aided and provided input on remote sensing analysis, NDDI, NDWI, and NDVI. Department of Geomatics Engineering, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Indonesia

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Published

2024-09-13

How to Cite

Affandy, N. A., Iranata, D., Anwar, N., Maulana, M. A., Wardoyo, W., Prastyo, D. D., & Sukojo, B. M. (2024). The Relationship between Hydro-Agricultural Drought in the Corong River Basin: A Causal Time Series Regression Model. Civil Engineering Dimension, 26(2), 173–190. https://doi.org/10.9744/ced.26.2.173-190

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Vol. 26 No. 2 (2024): SEPTEMBER 2024

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Copyright (c) 2024 Nur Azizah Affandy, Data Iranata, Nadjadji Anwar, Mahendra Andiek Maulana, Wasis Wardoyo, Dedy Dwi Prastyo, Bangun Muljo Sukojo

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